WINNERS
We shall pass by the obvious winners of this election– Beshear, Mongiardo, et al. to focus on the less transparent victors and victims on this November 6th.  When the dust clears, shifts in the power centers will become evident. There will be those who will have their day. Others will see their stars diminish.

The Louisville GOP
 Anne Northup can be in the forefront of rebuilding the Republican Party in the wake of the stinging defeat of the man who Ted Jackson called “the David Koresh of the Republican Party.” If she wants the job, that is.

Anne and her company can spend the next few weeks saying “I told you so and nyah, nyah, nyah” to those who rejected her as the candidate who could not win. Anne retains her stature in Louisville, her loyalists and her reputation.

The GOP, which has tended toward rural, religious values over the past few cycles, will turn to being the party of urban conservatism. Look for William Crystal Republicans taking the lead in the Grand Old Party. Northup and her urban conservatives will be the building blocks for a revitalized party that will come out from the shadows of Big Daddy McConnell.

Any Democratic Representative Up for Re-election in 2008
House and Senate Democrats will have good reason to do the happy dance at Beshear’s victory celebration tonight. With a Democrat in the Governor’s Mansion who has said that holding the House and taking back the Senate will be a priority, Democrats will find it easier to raise money.  The Republicans’ highest vote getter won’t be in a position to twist arms for anyone but himself. McConnell will be fighting for his own seat and straining money away from GOP challengers.

As easy as re-election for incumbents has always been (over 95% success rate), it just got easier.

Two Legs of the Golden Triangle – Lexington, Louisville
Lexington can claim Steve Beshear and Louisville can claim Jack Conway and Todd Hollenbach.  Lexington is the home of the Democratic chair, Jonathan Miller. Louisville is the home of Democratic vice-chair, Jennifer Moore. If these two urban centers turn out to be the margin of victory for the Democratic team, their leaders will be in a great position to bring home the bacon.

LOSERS
The Governor and Lt. Gov. Candidates
Again, the big losers are the top of the ticket. Ernie Fletcher pulled out his easy buttons to energize his base from the GOP tool kit – the 10 Commandments, gay bashing, sin (casino gambling – not the lottery or race tracks). Nothing seemed to work. Voters polled from the beginning of the general election campaign until the end said consistently “We don’t like you, Ernie.” Nothing that Ernie and his running mate, Robbie Rudolf could do or say changed their opinion.

What remains to be seen is whether the GOP will find a place for Fletcher and Rudolph in the power structure or send them into oblivion-at least until the pendulum swings back from fiscal conservative Right to religious Right.

Senator Mitch McConnell
A big win for the Democrats will leave them looking for the next target. Mitch McConnell has a big bull’s eye on his back. McConnell has always been able to balance his race with helping his Party’s candidates ride his coat tails. This time, Mitch will have to concentrate on Mitch and let the rest of the GOP candidates fend for themselves. How his lukewarm support of Fletcher will affect him remains to be seen.

Trey Greyson
Yeah, he won. But he may yet lose the war. In his acceptance speech, he clearly put himself in Mitch McConnell’s camp. His pledge to unite Republicans and re-elect Mitch McConnell was a bucket of cold water on those Dems who thought him a “safe Republican. Watch for greater scrutiny of Greyson and less cooperation from the new administration than their conciliatory words might indicate.

Any GOP Challenger
With a presidential election, congressional races, representatives and half of the Kentucky Senate upcoming in 2008, Republican challengers will find the financial waterhole full of thirsty carnivores. Raising money to challenge a Democratic incumbent will be more difficult than usual. Self funding is always problematic, but GOP downticket candidates may have no other choice.

AND THOSE WE AREN’T SURE ABOUT

Other Areas of the State
Eastern, Western and Northern Kentucky have reasons to feel good about the election and reasons to worry. The overwhelming painting of Kentucky’s gubernatorial map in “blue state Democratic” will put the counties that went from Fletcher in 03 to Beshear in 07 in the running for projects badly needed.

Ben Chandler
Will the representative from Lexington be able to further his ambitions when he was conspicuously absent in Beshear’s statewide campaign? Chandler, still popular even outside his district spent little time on the road with Beshear. Does Ben have big plans to move to the US Senate? Or will he stay where he is? 

Not to worry. As Bill Clinton is fond of saying, “all things are cyclical” Today’s winners are yesterday’s losers. Today’s smiles will be tomorrow’s frowns.