| A Tale of Two Elections - 2004 and 2008 in Senate District One |
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 The seven counties that form Kentucky Senate District #1 are an integral part of what Democrats once considered their Gibraltar of the West. Democratic candidates were almost guaranteed to put the last nails in their GOP opponents’ coffins in Western Kentucky.
The world started to change when Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell began the slow process of converting conservative Democrats of West Kentucky into secret GOP members. In the quiet of the voting booth, West Kentuckians began to vote Republican on a state and national level. Locally, Democrat candidates still held sway.
Looking at the raw numbers of party registration, Democratic pundits and planners outside the area didn’t see that, while registration remained firmly in their column, election day would not reflect the rosy future inherent in the skewed registration.
In 2004, an incumbent president was on the ballot. The Democrats fielded a liberal senator from Massachusetts against him. There was little or no campaigning by the national Democratic Party in West Kentucky. Unlike Bill Clinton’s courtship (which continues to this day), John Kerry ignored the voters of West Kentucky.
At the state level, Republican Ernie Fletcher promised an end to scandal and a return to good government. Residents of the Purchase knew the story of Tina Conner and Governor Patton well. Conner lived and worked in Hickman County. The media had a field day exploiting one of their favorite subjects – sex and the politician. Weary of scandal, West Kentuckians were ready to give the GOP a chance. 
Regionally, the area had been tilting to the right for several years. Small movements, like tiny earthquakes, went unnoticed. State Senator Bob Leeper, of McCracken County, once a Democrat, switched parties. Tom Barlow lost his congressional seat to Ed Whitfield, (another former Democrat). Melvin Henley, a college professor at Murray State, a Republican, won a seat in the House of Representatives. Henley has since become a Democrat.
The race between Mayfield attorney Dennis Null and Murray State University administrator, Ken Winters, was a close one. Fewer than 1500 votes separated the winner from the loser. That’s out of 46300 votes cast. Null won three counties – Graves, Lyon and Fulton. Winters took Calloway, Carlisle, Hickman and Trigg Counties.
Each candidate won his home county. Null prevailed in Graves by 2590 votes. Winters took Calloway by 2930. Winters’ victory in Calloway and his 900 vote margin in Trigg were big factors in defeating Null.
In the 2008 November general election, the candidates are again from Calloway and Graves Counties. The dynamics on the national and state levels are vastly different from the last election. The Democrats are raising more money than the GOP. Mitch McConnell is trailing in a poll behind challenger Bruce Lunsford and there is no incumbent in the White House.
Because of the money being sucked away by other races - especially the presidential campaign- both candidates will have to work hard and depend on their own resources. Winters has incumbency on his side. Hubbard has formidable name recognition. Both candidates are hard workers. Both have some burdens to bear- Winters has his party's slip in popularity and Hubbard his past problems.
The race for the First is going to be a long, muddy track with the candidate who can keep from falling down coming in first.
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